Abstract & Introduction: Rapid urbanization and agricultural transitions in arid environments significantly alter land surface characteristics and localized thermal dynamics. This study presents a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) changes and their impact on Land Surface Temperature (LST) in Al Bukayriyah, Saudi Arabia, over a 13-year period (2013 to 2026). Multitemporal satellite imagery acquired from Landsat 8 OLI/TIRS (April 2013 and April 2026) was processed using supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification across five spatial classes. Active Agriculture, Fallow/Harvested, Built-Up, Bare Land, and Gravelly/Stony Soil. Thermal infrared band 10 data was calibrated to retrieve surface temperatures in degrees Celsius.
Key Methodological Framework:
Data Sources: Cloud-free USGS Landsat 8 Level-2 Surface Reflectance and Surface Temperature products (April 2013 and April 2026) projected to UTM Zone 38N.
LULC Classification: Supervised Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) in ESRI ArcMap 10.8 with accuracy assessment verified via high resolution reference points. Overall classification accuracy reached 80.67% (Kappa = 0.758) for 2013 and 82.00% (Kappa = 0.775) for 2026.
LST Calibration: Derived from Band 10 thermal raster using USGS Level-2 scale factors to directly convert raster pixel values into kinetic surface temperature in degrees Celsius.
Normalized Thermal Dynamics (ΔNLST): Calculated relative Min-Max Normalized LST shifts (ΔNLST = NLST 2026 - NLST 2013) to eliminate seasonal and baseline thermal noise.
Spatial Hotspot Analysis: Application of Getis-Ord Gi spatial confidence statistics to map microclimatic thermal clusters and shifts.
Empirical Results & Zonal Thermal Statistics
Built-Up Expansion: Built-up footprint expanded by approximately 74% (reaching 79.92 sq km), reflecting rapid regional infrastructure development.
Arid Oasis Cooling Effect (Active Agriculture): Active agricultural canopy (175.36 sq km) exhibited persistent relative cooling (mean ΔNLST shift = -0.0930) due to active center-pivot evapotranspiration.
Fallow Land Thermal Escalation: Fallow/harvested fields (640.21 sq km) recorded the highest relative thermal intensification (mean ΔNLST shift = +0.1253), acting as the primary source of localized surface heat escalation.
Urban Core Thermal Inertia: Developed built-up zones exhibited strong thermal stability (mean ΔNLST shift = -0.1091), driven by structural shading during morning overpasses (10:30 AM local time) and high-albedo building materials. Spatial Hotspots (Getis-Ord Gi* Statistics):** Statistically significant thermal hotspots (90% to 99% confidence) strongly clustered over uncultivated/fallow agricultural parcels, whereas active agricultural circles consistently maintained persistent coldspot clusters.
Spatial Hotspots (Getis-Ord Gi* Statistics): Statistically significant thermal hotspots (90% to 99% confidence) strongly clustered over uncultivated/fallow agricultural parcels, whereas active agricultural circles consistently maintained persistent coldspot clusters.
Planning & Policy Recommendations
Regulated Agricultural Land Management: Implement policy frameworks to prevent prolonged fallow land abandonment and encourage cover cropping or moisture retention to suppress severe localized heating.
Urban Greening & Cool Pavements: Integrate high albedo paving materials and green infrastructure corridors into municipal master plans to preserve favorable microclimatic conditions during urban sprawl.
GIS & Remote Sensing Monitoring: Establish a real-time operational GIS remote sensing framework for continuous LULC change detection and urban heat monitoring.
Discussion (0)
Please keep comments relevant, constructive, and respectful. Personal attacks, abusive language, harassment, spam, and discriminatory content are not permitted.
No comments yet. Be the first member to contribute to the discussion.